ICJ ruling just before poll could hurt the Democrats

If the world court agrees to Cambodia's request to get Thai troops out of area near Preah Vihear temple, party may suffer a voter backlash

If the International Court of Justice (ICJ) takes provisional measures as requested by Cambodia and get Thai troops to withdraw from the vicinity of Preah Vihear Temple in the next three or four weeks, it will make the ruling Democrat Party appear to have failed to protect the country's interests.
Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya expects the court to deliver a ruling on the provisional measures by the end of this month, perhaps just a few days before the July 3 election, which would be long enough to influence voters' decisions.
The last two weeks of June are also critical because the World Heritage Committee will hold its 35th session in Paris to consider the Preah Vihear management plan, which is getting strong opposition from the current Thai government.
It is difficult to speculate how the ICJ will respond to Cambodia's request to take temporary measures that ban Thailand from maintaining a military presence near the ancient Hindu temple. The court may grant or reject the request, or even offer other alternatives.
The worst-case scenario for Abhisit Vejjajiva's government would be that the court takes Cambodia's side and forces Thailand to withdraw its troops from the disputed area and bans any act that might violate Phnom Penh's sovereignty over the area.
Abhisit's policy towards the neighbouring country during his time in power has been to block Cambodia's moves to manage the World Heritage-listed temple.
The government managed to delay the consideration of Cambodia's management plan for the temple during the committee's meeting in Brasilia last year, and has been trying to introduce further delays until the border dispute can be settled.
Cambodia has been trying to implement the plan since the temple was listed as a World Heritage Site in 2008, but all bilateral moves to settle the conflict have failed. Phnom Penh then took the case to the ICJ to have it clarify the scope and meaning of its 1962 ruling.
In 1962, the court ruled that Preah Vihear was situated in territory that came under the sovereignty of Cambodia, and that Thailand was obligated to withdraw its troops and personnel from the temple and its vicinity. Phnom Penh now wants the court to clarify whether Thailand's action since 1962 has been enough.
Meanwhile, Thailand has been arguing that the ICJ does not have the jurisdiction to make clarifications on the boundary matter, because its 1962 ruling only covered the temple and its immediate vicinity. Cambodia had accepted the lines demarcating Preah Vihear's vicinity offered by the Thai Cabinet in 1962 without any objections.
In a radio show yesterday, Kasit said he was confident in the ICJ's abilities because it comprised highly qualified judges from developed and developing countries and he believed that Thailand's argument was convincing enough.
In a Twitter message, the Thai Foreign Ministry said Cambodia needed an area in Thai territory for its Preah Vihear management plan to work.
The best-case scenario for Abhisit's government would be if the ICJ rejected Cambodia's request and the World Heritage Committee agreed to delay its consideration of the management plan during its upcoming session.
Natural Resources and Environment Minister Suwit Khunkitti, who will lead the Thai delegation at the meeting in Paris, failed in his efforts last week to have Cambodia agree to delay the plan again.
He told the Cabinet yesterday that the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (Unesco) backed Thailand's moves to delay the plan, but it needed to lobby support from other members of the committee.
Abhisit, meanwhile, has told Suwit to study closely the wording in the World Heritage Committee's decisions, since certain terms might affect Thailand's interests.
Suwit faces an uphill task next month, since he has already agreed, and even signed a note with Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister Sok An, to allow the Preah Vihear management plan to be considered by the committee in its upcoming session.
If the government fails the battle at both the ICJ and the World Heritage Committee levels, Abhisit and his government will lose all credit, because it would prove that his policies and handling of the issue have been totally wrong.